Module Production Cut Willingness Strengthens, High-Purity Quartz Sand Prices Remain Weak [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM September 29:

Silicon Metal

Price:

Last week, downstream users' pre-holiday procurement led to active market transactions and firm spot prices. By last Friday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,400-9,600 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon at 9,600-9,800 yuan/mt. As centralized procurement gradually concluded, market transactions slowed. Market focus is on manufacturers' shipment sentiment and changes in the operating rates of large enterprises.

Production:

In September, operating capacity in northern China continued to increase, leading to higher national silicon metal production. Many silicon enterprises in southwestern China plan production cuts or shutdowns by late October, so short-term silicon metal supply remains high.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: As of September 25, SMM statistics showed total social inventory in major silicon metal regions was 543,000 mt, flat WoW. This included 120,000 mt in general social warehouses (flat WoW) and 423,000 mt in delivery warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot portions, flat WoW). (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Price:

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 50.1-55 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 52.37 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 50-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were temporarily stable. Downstream crystal pulling plants had built sufficient raw material inventories earlier, leading to limited market transactions. Capacity exit actions have not yet yielded results, and the market is temporarily in a wait-and-see mode.

Production:

In September, polysilicon plants saw mixed production increases and cuts, with overall production showing limited fluctuation MoM from August. October polysilicon production schedules are gradually being released, with overall planned production exceeding expectations.

Inventory:

Recently, polysilicon inventory has been on an upward trend, as crystal pulling plants have slowed their procurement pace. In the near future, polysilicon production may still exceed demand, leading to relatively high inventory pressure.

Module

Price

Recently, the incidence of low-price competition among domestic module enterprises increased WoW, with intensifying sentiment for grabbing orders and competitive bidding. This led to a decline in recent mainstream transaction prices. Cost side, recent solar cell prices remained high with further increases planned, further increasing module cost pressure and strengthening willingness for module production cuts. Module enterprises are expected to continue facing significant two-way pressure. Current quotes for distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are 0.676 yuan/W, 0.693 yuan/W, and 0.683 yuan/W, respectively; quotes for centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are 0.663 yuan/W and 0.678 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

October module scheduled production is expected to decrease slightly. During the National Day holiday, most enterprises plan production stoppages for holidays, with durations varying from 3 to 8 days.

Inventory

Weekly inventory, the recent inventory level increase has weakened due to module price concessions for shipments, but demand remains in the doldrums, and inventory is expected to show an upward trend subsequently.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, the domestic price for inner-layer sand is 58,000-64,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand is 25,000-32,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand is 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Recently, the transaction center for domestic high-purity quartz sand prices has shifted downward, and with increasing quartz sand supply coupled with decreasing wafer demand, quartz sand prices are expected to continue falling.

Production

Recent domestic sand enterprise operating rates continue to grow; the increase in inflows of imported ore has led to higher operating rates at domestic enterprises.

Inventory

Sand enterprise inventory continues to increase; crucible enterprises currently have no centralized purchase plans and primarily make just-in-time procurement.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm single-layer coating PV glass is 19.5-21 yuan/m², with stable prices.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 3.2mm double-layer coating PV glass is 20.5-22 yuan/m², with stable prices.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm single-layer coating PV glass is 13-14 yuan/m². In the last week of September, domestic module enterprises began inquiring about prices from glass enterprises. Currently, enterprise quotations for new October orders are diverging, with some increasing and some stable; the final price for new orders will be determined after further negotiation.

2.0mm double-layer coating: The quoted price for 2.0mm double-layer coating PV glass is 14-15 yuan/m², with stable prices.

Production

September production increased due to higher operating rates of domestic glass furnaces, and October production is expected to rise further.

Inventory

Glass inventory remains low, with industry glass days of inventories falling to around two weeks.